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Now that I've had a couple weeks to think about the results of the 2016 election season, including a few conversations with friends, there are several things I take away from the season of our discontent.
My overall feeling about the election is not as dire as what I felt in 2000, when Al Gore had the election stolen from him. Don't get me wrong. I think this election will have dire consequences, but I'm at a different place in my life now. In 2000 I worried about my future; now I worry about the future of others.
The Polls Were Wrong. Every poll I looked at leading up to the election gave the impression that Hillary Clinton was safely in the lead in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Perhaps there were simply too many polls, and I was relying on the average among them. For the odd poll that predicted a Trump victory, most of us were too dismissive of the possibility. In 2008, I followed one poll, Politico, and it was amazingly accurate about the Obama win. Perhaps never again will people follow polls quite so closely as they did this time.
My Original Ten Reasons Blog Was Pretty Accurate. In July, 2015, long before Donald Trump was nominated by the Republican party, I predicted the Republicans would win the 2016 election. I revised the blog twice at six-month intervals, thinking that Trump neutralized many of the reasons I originally gave, but it turns out the reasons were more valid than my assumption that no sane country would ever elect Trump. Here's a link to the original blog:
Only one of the original ten reasons was insignificant. It didn't matter who the Democrats nominated for vice president, since the Republicans nominated an equally-unknown candidate. The other nine reasons were quite valid. Yes, the country is not ready for a woman president. Maybe it won't happen in my lifetime. (Many Latino seniors voted for Trump only because the alternative was a woman.) Yes, the liberal voters were markedly inconsistent and absent. Yes, it's time for another war (against ISIS). Yes, non-stop political campaigns hurt Democrats more than Republicans, although it was not the infusion of money, but the proliferation of tabloid sensibilities that controlled the campaign. And, yes, image was everything in defeating Hillary.
Hillary Clinton Ran A Mediocre Campaign. Not since Dukakis climbed onto an Army tank in the 1988 campaign have I been so bothered by the campaign of a Democrat. After a very successful party convention in late July, Hillary's schedule was surprisingly light in August, the first crucial month to solidify her lead. It was weighed down by fundraiser events and TV show appearances, rather than events where she took her message to the people. Her campaign would produce TV ads that highlighted the many controversies that Donald Trump created, but she was very slow in taking those points to borderline states.
When she did speak before crowds of people, they were usually either congregations of minorities or college students. She did not adequately address in person the people who were on the fence, like workers in small towns. She did not address people's fears, and her assurances were reruns of old platitudes-- "where every child will have the opportunity to reach his or her full potential" type lines. I'd cringe at such moments, because they were lost opportunities to say something substantive.
Another disappointing aspect of her campaign was the overall focus of her speeches. Initially she spoke about how she would change people's lives--free college tuition, family leave, prison reform--but gradually she focused more on Donald Trump's character and the potential horror of electing him. She and her team greatly misjudged what was important to the middle class. They wanted to hear about jobs and defeating ISIS, not about Trump's despicable behavior.
It is ironic that Clinton was the one to run the conservative campaign. We learned many years ago that running a conservative offense in football when you have the lead is a recipe for disaster. It lets the trailing team get back into the game. If her campaign had been as progressive as her values, she would have had a better chance to win.
Hillary Clinton Lost By A Larger Margin Than You Think. It was not only that Hillary Clinton lost the electoral college by such a substantial margin, but she actually lost the popular vote by a huge margin, if you ignore just five states--California, Oregon, Washington, New York and Massachusetts. She lost by over 6.18 million votes in the other 45 states (as of November 18). If you remove the same five states from Obama's win in 2012, he only lost the remaining 45 states by 1.8 million votes. You'd expect that deficit, given that most of those are "red" states.
The lesson is that you have to keep your losses at a minimum in states that poll against you, and you have to bolster your lead in the borderline states. Such is the dysfunction of an electoral college method of electing officials, where you can lose all of a state's electoral votes by being one vote short in the popular vote. Again, Clinton's team focused on the borderline states, like Michigan and Wisconsin, too late in the game. We should understand that she was a very unpopular candidate in most of the country.
We should also realize that she was uniformly unpopular east of the Rockies, and in that way she did not lose by just a little bit. States like Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Iowa and Florida were all competitive, but she came up short in each one.
The Election Didn't Create Bigots, But Only Revealed Them. The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) is currently tracking 892 "hate" groups in the United States. I donate to the SPLC--more than any other charity--and so I have followed the crusade against hate for about 17 years. To think that hate is not widespread and dense in this country is totally inaccurate and naive. This election did not create new bigots; it revealed the prolific hate that exists.
Trump's success has empowered, to an extent, hate groups across the country, but that "validation" will be a temporary condition. People want to obscure the hate and bigotry that exists, and that will mostly happen in the months after the inaugural, as the groups retreat into the background of our lives, waiting for another bone to chew.
It was actually a service to the country that this campaign again revealed the heart of American darkness. I get impatient and bored with movements like Black Lives Matter and Occupy Wall Street (although I agree with them), because they invariably are too narrowly focused and ill-organized, and their protest methods are easy to dislike. I much prefer the Teaching Tolerance campaign that the SPLC promotes. If I lived in Montgomery, Alabama, that's where I would volunteer.
Trump Belongs To The Republicans. Now that Trump is the president-elect, the Republican Party must "own" him. That's going to be a big problem. Not only are several of his promises counter to traditional Republican values, but anything can set him off into a Twitter tirade. I refuse to be embarrassed by Trump, because I didn't vote for him and because I am not in any way associated with his values, but my Republican friends are in a tougher position. They may not have voted for him, but now their party has to "manage" him.
That's going to be tricky. He opposes the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and promises to renegotiate existing trade deals (for the benefit of the middle class), but Republicans have always been for free and open trade to benefit corporate America. He announced a few days after the election that term limits would be a high priority for him, but Republicans hate that idea. He has cuddled up to Putin, while much of Congress would like to start another Cold War with Russia. Republicans are licking their chops over all the conservative initiatives they'll drive through Congress, but they must do something they've so far failed to do in over a year--manage Trump.
Another big problem for the Republicans will be the radical team that Trump is building around him. Even if Trump goes through patches of stability, the first two weeks after the election have seen several controversial appointments made by Trump. The more bigots Trump appoints, the more bigotry will be associated with the Republican party. Mitt Romney would be a great appointment for Secretary of State, if only because he is a decent person. Next to Trump's other cronies, Romney is a downright saint.
Trump's Middle Class Supporters Will Be Hurt The Most. The middle class did not grow during eight years of George W. Bush. Wages were stagnant and millions of jobs were lost. Two wars were started. Huge tax cuts went to the wealthy elite, not so much to the middle class. And yet Trump's middle class supporters bought into the promise that jobs will come back, we'll defeat ISIS, be great friends with Russia and restore prosperity to families.
The subject of jobs is most interesting to me. Trump did a masterful job in fooling the middle class. He made it a "huge" point that he'd bring jobs back from overseas, but that's just not going to happen. For one thing, only 3% of the jobs lost in the 2000's went to foreign workers. Improvements in technology caused most of the permanent job losses, while a stagnant economy cost jobs that have already been recovered in the last seven years.
Another shock the middle class will encounter is that jobs creation through infrastructure bills will be slow to appear. It involves a LOT of spending, something Trump's party doesn't especially like. He's proposed a trillion dollars of infrastructure projects over the next ten years. Are the Republicans actually going to approve 100 billion dollars of spending each of those years?
Trump's supporters will also be disappointed when ISIS is not so easily defeated and when a wall is not built along America's southern border. In the former case, ISIS is not a place; it's a philosophy. Stamping out ISIS is like eliminating Nazism. I don't believe total elimination is possible--only containment and less frequent outbreaks. Boots on the ground will only drive ISIS to more countries.
In the latter case, the wall would take a decade to build, cost many billions of dollars, need to be maintained and fully staffed forever, and would be obsolete before it is finished. Preventing workers from coming into the country from Mexico is about as likely as preventing guns from being smuggled out to our southern neighbor. It is more a symbol of Trump's bigotry to build a wall, and when he fails to erect it, his supporters won't be pleased. I'm just waiting for the day when Trump has pushed Mexico far enough that Mexico starts aligning with China or Russia.
Finally, the Republicans' move to privatize Medicare will hurt white, middle class workers the most if it happens, and Trump would have to side with the Democrats to defeat that effort in Congress. The middle class also won't like it when the eligibility age for Medicare is raised, which is what Paul Ryan's privatization plan proposes. Workers over 65 now won't be affected, but people in their 40's and 50's will be disproportionately hit hard. The white, middle class workers are the demographic that depends on Medicare the most. They will be the ones most hurt by a change to Medicare.
The Real Deplorables Were The Non-Voters. Hillary Clinton described the people who are bigoted supporters of Trump as being "deplorable" (and their bigotry is deplorable), but it turns out the real deplorables were the people who didn't vote and were able to. Only 54% of eligible voters actually exercised the right and obligation to vote. A lot has been said about voter suppression, and that certainly occurred, but not to the tune of 46% of the eligible voters!
After his much-publicized demonstrations of not standing for the national anthem, San Francisco 49er Colin Kaepernick then announced that he did not bother to vote. He lost all credibility with that choice, and he was not the only one who followed such a path. Lots of minorities, led by millennials, did not show up. This election had almost a million fewer African American voters than 2012 had!
I just cannot get too excited about an election result where only half the country cares enough to vote. Even in 2012, only 56% of eligible voters turned out for the U.S. election. In Australia, where voting is compulsory if you do not wish to receive a small fine, 94% of registered voters turned out for their last national election--40% more than the United States saw in this election!
Of those people who were unable to vote in our election due to voter suppression, I wonder how many are redoubling their efforts for a voter ID this week, in preparation for 2018. Probably not many.
Some Progressive Ideas Emerged And Increased In Popularity. Thanks to people like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, we may look back at 2016 as the year that new progressive ideas emerged and became more popular. Before this year I had not ever heard of an American movement supporting free college tuition. I'd only heard of that concept in European countries. Paid family leave and significant subsidies/tax breaks for childcare costs have gained more bipartisan support.
It will be many years before progressive ideas are implemented again. People really need to suffer before they support progress, I guess. The Supreme Court will be conservative at least for another twenty-five years, and the people to suffer will be those with little money. A wealthy person will always be able to pay for an abortion or move to a place not so affected by climate change. Progressive ideas most immediately affect middle- and lower-income families, and so the rise of conservatism mostly hurts those families.
The progressive agenda to help those families will return someday, and the country will look back to 2016 as a benchmark for progressive proposals.
This May Be Good For Democrats In 2020. One recurring thought I had during the last six months was how hard it was going to be for Hillary Clinton to govern and get things done, until at least 2018, if she was elected. Because of that (and the economy), the Democrats would probably have been soundly defeated in the 2020 election. Now the Republicans not only have no excuse for inaction, but they alone will be judged on the success of those actions.
That sets up well for the Democrats in 2020, if they can now focus on local governments, promoting young leaders, and voter registration. The Republicans and Donald Trump will be associated with the changes that are likely to occur in the next four years, and, even with all that power, solving any problems we have will become more and more difficult. If the Democrats can groom someone who does not have such a controversial history, their campaign should be easier in 2020.
The Economy Stayed Positive But Will Shift. Recessions occur every eight to ten years, and it's been eight years since the great recession. I thought the subject of the economy would be a much bigger factor than it was in the 2016 campaign. The Democrats made a major error in not talking more about job creation, but the economy stayed hopeful and bright throughout the campaign, much to my surprise. Had jobs or earnings reports turned sour in the last year, the polls would have reflected that, and the economy would have been the biggest reason for Clinton's loss.
The economy is due to begin shifting to negative numbers in the next year or two. My financial advisor predicts 18 to 24 months before we hit the next recession; I predict 12 months. New jobs creation is a leading indicator of a coming recession, so I believe we'll see negative job number in 6 to 9 months from now.
Think about that! What would be the country's reaction if we began going into a recession 4 months after Hillary Clinton took office? No matter whose fault it is, the country almost always blames the party that is in office. If you look at all of the recessions that have occurred since World War II, the sitting president's party lost in every succeeding election, with only two exceptions, when world crises (the Korean War and the Iranian oil embargo) were blamed for the recessions.
In failing to get elected, Hillary Clinton got out of the way of a train barreling downhill.
What Could We See In The Next Four Years? We'll see a lot of big changes in the next four years, so it is best to prepare yourself for them. Here are some wild predictions:
- Russia will invade one of the Baltic states, probably Estonia. Trump will invite Putin to tea to share their views on populism.
- The selective service draft will be reinstated, because we will run low on soldiers to fight the war against ISIS, which will spread to at least three countries.
- We will enter a recession and stay there for the last two years of Trump's presidency, due to several of his policies, including tax cuts for the rich, reduced regulatory laws and a soft job market, in part brought on by the stampede of alternative energy jobs to China and India.
- The U.S. will leave the Paris Agreement, and the Republican Congress will officially declare that climate change does not exist. Coincidentally, Congress will be in recess for 200 bad weather days per year.
- Trump will appoint three ultra-right Supreme Court justices, who will bring their own guns to court.
- Abortions will return to the "underground railway" of the 1960's. Planned Parenthood will vanish, to be replaced by the Christian Family Planning and Abstinence Council.
- Mike Pence will attend a first grade classroom to celebrate his favorite cause--the return of prayer to public schools.
- Mexico will enter into a trade agreement with China, and China will build its own wall in Mexico, to limit the import of guns from America.
- Medicare will be privatized, and the Medicare threshold ages will be raised. Trump will exempt all his relatives.
- Race riots will become commonplace across the country, but for the first time in my lifetime, whites will start their own riots. Like Greece, working class whites will rebel against stagnant wages, inflation and loss of medical coverage.
- Trump will get another divorce.
It Is Time For Less Mass Empathy And More Individual Planning. Progressives are nothing if not empathetic. We agonize constantly over what could and does happen to other people. We fear the worst because of how it will affect other people's lives, not necessarily our own. If my list in the last point made you cringe, let me look at how all of the predictions would directly affect my life:
- Invade Estonia? I barely know where it is on a map.
- Reinstate the draft? I'm far past the age when I would have to serve.
- A recession? My wife and I are very conservative and defensive in our investments, to preserve our retirement savings. We never count on any growth of the economy, and thus we minimize the effects of a downturn.
- Ignore climate change? I'll be long dead before my home in California goes under water, and the Florida coast is too far away to worry about.
- A conservative Supreme Court? That's what we've had for the last 20 years.
- Outlaw abortions? My days of procreation are over. I'll contribute to the "underground railway" of solutions.
- Prayer in classrooms? Our days of public education are over.
- A wall on our southern border? We're natural born citizens of the U.S., and California will be the last state to prevent the migration of Latinos.
- Medicare privatized? We've saved a lot for private Medicare insurance and costs, and we carry long term care insurance.
- Race riots? We're in a pretty safe area that is highly integrated.
- Trump will get a divorce? I'll send a sympathy card.
I also will not change my behavior toward other people. I will keep being kind and friendly to others; I will live my beliefs and values. I will let people change traffic lanes in front of me. I will strike up conversations with people of all varieties. I will not attend any church but will respect each person's faith. I will be especially attracted to people with dogs, because dogs know best.
It is time for a little less empathy and a little more wisdom and planning. In the same way I could not influence how others voted, I also cannot be responsible for how their votes affected their lives. My mother had the awful habit of projecting herself into the tragedies of other people, though she did not know them. That only served to make her miserable; it did not help others. Rather than engage in mass empathy, especially through social media, I will be empathetic to individuals who need help, and I will continue to contribute to causes that help people, animals and the planet.
My best advice is to not fuel the negative energy in your life brought on by this election, but to plan for the financial and moral recession that is coming. Practice mental yoga every day. Be safe out there!
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