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Six months ago, in July of 2015, I wrote a blog entitled "Ten Reasons Why The Republicans Will Win In 2016." It's time to reevaluate those ten reasons (plus the bonus reason) to see what has changed. A few things have changed, all in Hillary Clinton's favor, since July. I'll list the reasons in the same order and give a rating between "0" and "10" of whether I believe the reason is still valid, where "0" means the reason has been totally discounted and "10" means the reason is perhaps more valid than ever.
(1) America is not ready for a woman President (5). Even before Nikki Haley gave the GOP's response to President Obama's final State of the Union message on Tuesday, January 12, her name was being mentioned in many places as a likely candidate for vice president, if Marco Rubio is the Republican presidential candidate. (I first saw her name mentioned in Fortune Magazine as the predicted candidate in late November, 2015.) She leaped to national prominence in taking down the Confederate flag from the South Carolina state house and in her reactions to the Charleston shootings earlier in 2015.
If the Republicans place a woman on the ticket, then the impact of the Democrats having a woman presidential candidate is greatly reduced. It would ensure that we will have a woman occupy one of the two highest positions in our government. America would have to accept that!
Another factor that reduced the validity of this reason was Hillary Clinton's stunning performance at the Benghazi hearing in October, 2015. Even Republican columnists were praising her strength and durability from that 11-hour testimony. Republicans did her a huge favor in demonstrating that she was stronger than any man on the committee. They all had to take lengthy breaks during the proceedings, while she was subjected to non-stop questioning and responded with amazing consistency and grace.
If the Republicans place a woman on the ticket, then the impact of the Democrats having a woman presidential candidate is greatly reduced. It would ensure that we will have a woman occupy one of the two highest positions in our government. America would have to accept that!
Another factor that reduced the validity of this reason was Hillary Clinton's stunning performance at the Benghazi hearing in October, 2015. Even Republican columnists were praising her strength and durability from that 11-hour testimony. Republicans did her a huge favor in demonstrating that she was stronger than any man on the committee. They all had to take lengthy breaks during the proceedings, while she was subjected to non-stop questioning and responded with amazing consistency and grace.
(2) Two steps forward, one step back (9). I think this is still the overwhelming tendency of any democracy and that it is inevitable that this country will go backward in a number of areas, beginning as early as 2016. Recently I've heard Republican spokesmen allude to the fact that we've had too many changes in the last eight years, and that is probably the feeling of at least half the country.
Obama's years have arguably been one of the best eight-year periods in our country's history, but Republicans would vehemently argue, from their point of view, that it's been one of the worst periods. Mitt Romney campaigned on the pledge in 2012 that he would get unemployment down to 6% by the end of 2016. Barack Obama has gotten it down to 5%, but there has been no praise from Republicans.
That's one of many changes that have occurred in the last eight years. What would it be like in the United States right now had a Republican been president during the last eight years? The following would likely be the scenario:
Obama's years have arguably been one of the best eight-year periods in our country's history, but Republicans would vehemently argue, from their point of view, that it's been one of the worst periods. Mitt Romney campaigned on the pledge in 2012 that he would get unemployment down to 6% by the end of 2016. Barack Obama has gotten it down to 5%, but there has been no praise from Republicans.
That's one of many changes that have occurred in the last eight years. What would it be like in the United States right now had a Republican been president during the last eight years? The following would likely be the scenario:
- No national health care system designed to cover everyone
- Thousands more American deaths in foreign wars, since the Iraq and Afghanistan wars would still be raging and/or America would have "boots on the ground" in the fight against DAESH
- Two more right-wing justices on the Supreme Court, rather than Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan, who doubled the number of women ever to appear on the USSC
- No Planned Parenthood
- New anti-abortion laws
- No equal rights for the LGBT community
- A policy of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" still followed in the military
- No EPA (or a greatly reduced EPA)
- No global warming initiatives or agreements with other countries
- No Bureau of Consumer Protection
- No Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform law
- No nuclear proliferation agreement with Iran
- Little or no American auto industry
- Weakened or no Pell Grants for students
- Higher unemployment and weaker economy, based on much delayed quantitative easing measures after 2008 (i.e., austerity measures embraced)
- A more conservative Fed chief and a "rules-based" Fed interest rate law, almost certainly guaranteeing higher interest rates sooner
- No improved relations with Cuba (...mentioned to me by friend, Tom Moran)
(3) It's Time For Another War (10). The hysteria in this country over DAESH, the bigotry toward Syrian refugees, and the failures of local armed forces in Iraq and Afghanistan continue to sway Americans to the side of using U.S. force to solve Middle East problems. Military force is the mantra of most Republicans in Congress, and the glorified patriotism of such actions is narcotic to a majority of Americans. Diplomacy ranks way down the list of desired solutions, even though it's proved to work better than military force in the last eight years. Democrats favor diplomacy over war. Republicans, not so much.
(4) America's Gun Addiction (10). More than ever, Americans love their guns, far more than they love peaceful, non-violent solutions to domestic and foreign issues. The only event that would bring this rating down from a "10" is the nomination of Bernie Sanders for the Democrats. He is not as anti-gun as Hillary Clinton is.
(5) The Myth of Reducing Big Government (10). When the Republicans are not insulting each other at the presidential debates, they are adding to the rhetoric of big government pushing policies on the average American. Unless Democrats regain control of the House or the Senate, election of a Republican president would almost assuredly guarantee the rollback of several policies that have benefited middle America. Conservative America is much more accepting of rhetoric and bombast, if the candidate promises reduction of "big government." Oh well, they'll deserve to lose the benefits of big government if that's what they choose.
This reason still works against the election of a Democrat, because that candidate must defend big government programs, such as Obamacare. That requires each voter to actually think about other people, which is asking a lot of the average person.
What could bring this rating down is if Elizabeth Warren comes out in support of Hillary Clinton, and Clinton begins to stress the good that big government has done, per Warren's accomplishments and policies. Bernie Sanders is too far to the left to be believed by the average middle-American, even though his promise to destroy big banks is tempting to many. Clinton's proposals are much more realistic, and therefore people may actually listen to her. If she can swing the conversation to preserving Medicare, Social Security and the Bureau of Consumer Protection, rather than destroying big banks, then this rating will go way down in importance.
(6) Non-Stop Political Campaigns Hurt Democrats (7). This reason has begun to benefit the Democrats somewhat, although I still think it benefits Republicans on balance, because they cater to fear much more than Democrats do. The vitriolic exchanges among Republican candidates, for months on end, have definitely benefited the Democrats, because many independent voters aren't attracted to the hate mongering evident during Republican debates. Republicans use name-calling and demeaning adjectives to characterize their party's other candidates, while the worst you'll hear between the Democrats is an accusation that Hillary received Wall Street donations or that Bernie voted against certain gun-control measures--facts that are easily verified (and both true). I have not heard a single instance of name-calling during the Democratic debates.
As the campaigns continue into the Democrat vs. Republican fight, this reason will probably go back to "10" for the Republicans, because they are much better at frightening people in their ads.
(7) The Democratic VP Candidate Is An Unknown (8). Fortune Magazine predicted that Tim Kaine, junior senator from Virginia, would be the VP candidate for the Democrats. Martin O'Malley has also emerged as a possible VP candidate, based on his debate performances. Although the Democrats are short on nationally-known figures, the situation is not quite as dire for the Democrats as I observed six months ago.
Of course, if the Republicans choose Sarah Palin again for their VP candidate, this rating goes down to zero.
(8) The Inconsistency of Liberal Voters (10). I still think Democratic voters are much more inconsistent by nature than Republican voters. Black voters are even more disillusioned by the political process, because all the shootings by police in this country have drawn their attention and focus to that single problem and away from the Democratic strengths, such as increased health care for the poor.
I don't see any national issues that are attracting liberal voters to pay attention more, and there are several forces which distract them from important issues.
As I see it, the one thing that could lower the weight of this reason is if issues emerge to mobilize young voters, especially if Bernie Sanders is not the Democratic candidate, but Hillary Clinton is. Clinton needs to stress issues more that matter to young voters and mobilize them as Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012.
(9) Image Is Everything (4). I'm really split on this one, although the subject of image still tilts in the Republican direction, I think. Clinton's image was greatly enhanced during the October Benghazi hearing. For the most part, Republicans "telegraphed" their questions, and, therefore, nothing surprised her. Her only task was to be consistent with her answers, and many news people called her performance "presidential" in her eleven-hour testimony.
Bernie Sanders has also enhanced the Democratic brand by rising in the polls and not making any noteworthy mistakes. That helps Hillary Clinton develop her image as she fields tougher and tougher questions raised by Sanders.
The Republican image has taken a big hit because of the two current front-runners, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Their daily sparring and accusations are drawing the attention of the press and the country, while more dignified candidates, like Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, are greatly overshadowed. I still believe Marco Rubio will emerge as the nominee, and then the image factor will swing more in the Republican direction. Rubio is very polished and dynamic.
And, finally, the New York Times carried an interesting article today [1/21/2016] noting that Clinton's clothes are no longer a point of interest to anyone. Now, if only Donald Trump would get a haircut.
(4) America's Gun Addiction (10). More than ever, Americans love their guns, far more than they love peaceful, non-violent solutions to domestic and foreign issues. The only event that would bring this rating down from a "10" is the nomination of Bernie Sanders for the Democrats. He is not as anti-gun as Hillary Clinton is.
(5) The Myth of Reducing Big Government (10). When the Republicans are not insulting each other at the presidential debates, they are adding to the rhetoric of big government pushing policies on the average American. Unless Democrats regain control of the House or the Senate, election of a Republican president would almost assuredly guarantee the rollback of several policies that have benefited middle America. Conservative America is much more accepting of rhetoric and bombast, if the candidate promises reduction of "big government." Oh well, they'll deserve to lose the benefits of big government if that's what they choose.
This reason still works against the election of a Democrat, because that candidate must defend big government programs, such as Obamacare. That requires each voter to actually think about other people, which is asking a lot of the average person.
What could bring this rating down is if Elizabeth Warren comes out in support of Hillary Clinton, and Clinton begins to stress the good that big government has done, per Warren's accomplishments and policies. Bernie Sanders is too far to the left to be believed by the average middle-American, even though his promise to destroy big banks is tempting to many. Clinton's proposals are much more realistic, and therefore people may actually listen to her. If she can swing the conversation to preserving Medicare, Social Security and the Bureau of Consumer Protection, rather than destroying big banks, then this rating will go way down in importance.
(6) Non-Stop Political Campaigns Hurt Democrats (7). This reason has begun to benefit the Democrats somewhat, although I still think it benefits Republicans on balance, because they cater to fear much more than Democrats do. The vitriolic exchanges among Republican candidates, for months on end, have definitely benefited the Democrats, because many independent voters aren't attracted to the hate mongering evident during Republican debates. Republicans use name-calling and demeaning adjectives to characterize their party's other candidates, while the worst you'll hear between the Democrats is an accusation that Hillary received Wall Street donations or that Bernie voted against certain gun-control measures--facts that are easily verified (and both true). I have not heard a single instance of name-calling during the Democratic debates.
As the campaigns continue into the Democrat vs. Republican fight, this reason will probably go back to "10" for the Republicans, because they are much better at frightening people in their ads.
(7) The Democratic VP Candidate Is An Unknown (8). Fortune Magazine predicted that Tim Kaine, junior senator from Virginia, would be the VP candidate for the Democrats. Martin O'Malley has also emerged as a possible VP candidate, based on his debate performances. Although the Democrats are short on nationally-known figures, the situation is not quite as dire for the Democrats as I observed six months ago.
Of course, if the Republicans choose Sarah Palin again for their VP candidate, this rating goes down to zero.
(8) The Inconsistency of Liberal Voters (10). I still think Democratic voters are much more inconsistent by nature than Republican voters. Black voters are even more disillusioned by the political process, because all the shootings by police in this country have drawn their attention and focus to that single problem and away from the Democratic strengths, such as increased health care for the poor.
I don't see any national issues that are attracting liberal voters to pay attention more, and there are several forces which distract them from important issues.
As I see it, the one thing that could lower the weight of this reason is if issues emerge to mobilize young voters, especially if Bernie Sanders is not the Democratic candidate, but Hillary Clinton is. Clinton needs to stress issues more that matter to young voters and mobilize them as Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012.
(9) Image Is Everything (4). I'm really split on this one, although the subject of image still tilts in the Republican direction, I think. Clinton's image was greatly enhanced during the October Benghazi hearing. For the most part, Republicans "telegraphed" their questions, and, therefore, nothing surprised her. Her only task was to be consistent with her answers, and many news people called her performance "presidential" in her eleven-hour testimony.
Bernie Sanders has also enhanced the Democratic brand by rising in the polls and not making any noteworthy mistakes. That helps Hillary Clinton develop her image as she fields tougher and tougher questions raised by Sanders.
The Republican image has taken a big hit because of the two current front-runners, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Their daily sparring and accusations are drawing the attention of the press and the country, while more dignified candidates, like Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, are greatly overshadowed. I still believe Marco Rubio will emerge as the nominee, and then the image factor will swing more in the Republican direction. Rubio is very polished and dynamic.
And, finally, the New York Times carried an interesting article today [1/21/2016] noting that Clinton's clothes are no longer a point of interest to anyone. Now, if only Donald Trump would get a haircut.
(10) What Draws People To Hillary (8)? One really smart thing Hillary Clinton has done is announce points in her governance plan that she would implement if elected--points that diverge in some respects from Barack Obama's policies. She has been forced further to the left by Bernie Sanders, and yet she is not as far left as Sanders is. For instance, she would not do away with Obamacare, as Sanders would, in order to replace it with a single-payer system.
As the two races get down to the final candidates, Hillary Clinton's speaking points will emerge loud and clear, and then this factor will carry much less weight. The Republican candidate will have the choice of either trying to attack each of Clinton's policy points (a defensive position) or will have to come up with his own speaking points (an offensive position). The advantage now is that Clinton can reveal her specific policies sooner. We'll see if she takes advantage of those early speaking points.
(11) (Bonus Reason) Rising Interest Rates - Economy Woes (9). The first interest rate hike was delayed a month, and there is the hint that only two more hikes will occur in 2016, rather than three or four. Since the public reaction to interest rate hikes and cuts is often delayed several months past the actual events, this will become less of a factor if the Fed continues their slow roll-out of hikes. An alternate bonus reason-- and what is much more likely to happen--is that the economy will begin to stagnate, especially with economic woes in China, and the unemployment figure will begin to inch up again. That would not be good for the incumbent party close to an election.
Summary. Of a possible 110 points, the cumulative weighting for my reasons is down to 90, mostly because of three things that have occurred since July, 2015. First, Hillary Clinton's performance at the October Benghazi hearing really boosted her image. Second, the Republicans had Nikki Haley give the SOTU response, thus bringing a woman to the forefront of possible VP candidates. Third, while both Clinton and Sanders have presented specific proposals and policies they would implement if elected, the Republicans' promises have either fallen on the side of bigotry against minorities or the side of undoing what Obama has done in the last eight years, neither of which shows positive leadership.
I expect the cumulative rating to hover around 90 through the next six months. Both conventions will be in July, 2016, with the Republican convention preceding the Democratic convention. That's probably an advantage for the Democrats, who can use the endless speeches to counterattack what the Republicans present in Cleveland the previous week. I also predict that it will be the most important speech that Hillary Clinton ever gives, and that speech alone can alter the ratings of several of the reasons I've presented here.
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